Predictions Revisited

Now that the dust has settled, it’s time for me to assess my election Predictions. I’m not usually overly optimistic, but apparently I was this time.

I correctly predicted that Republicans would lose the House and that the seats closest to scandal would fall the hardest, but I underestimated the net loss at 18-22 seats; at this writing, it looks like 28.

I predicted that the Republicans would hold the Senate–barely. Well, I was right about the barely. I was also correct in my expections for the Rhode Island, Ohio, and Pennsylvania seats. I was way off regarding Maryland’s Senate race.

As for the real heart-breaker, I predicted that Virginia Senator George Allen would win. As everyone reading this should know, my soon to be ex-Senator and I came close, but not close enough. And now, a confession. When I wrote my predictions post, I thought Sen. Allen would win, and I remained cautiously optimistic up until his concession on Thursday. But by the weekend before the election, my stomach had started to sink. Why? Because I signed up to volunteer for the Allen campaign on Friday. And then I heard nothing. Okay, I did immediately receive a message thanking me for signing up for email updates, which I’d been receiving for months already. But no one ever called or emailed me to ask me to show up at a particular place and time to do any work. I don’t know where the much-vaunted Republican Get-Out-The-Vote effort was this year, but I don’t think it was in Virginia.

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